----- March 24, 2016 -----

Population Estimates With Components of Change: 2010-2015

The Census Bureau has released new county level population estimates at the county and metropolitan area levels for 2015. These are the first county level estimates for this year's cycle and they show components of population change (births, deaths, net migration) for each annual period since 2010. The Missouri Census Data Center has done its usual processing of these data to create data sets in our public archive (accessible via our Uexplore/Dexter web tools) and a series of reports based on these data. Here are some interesting facts you'll find in these report/data sets:

  • The five Missouri counties showing the largest percentage change in population betweeb 2010 and 2015 are:
    1. Platte county (KC area) grew by 6,779 or 7.6% with a net inmigration of almost 4,000 .

    2. Boone county (Columbia area) was a close second with the same 7.6% increase (it was actually 7.582 vs. Platte's 7.590). The increase was evenly divided between natural increase (births - deaths) and net inmigration, each accounting for around 6,000 new residents.

    3. Christian county (south of Springfield) came in third with the same 7.6% growth rate, It ranked 7th in total population gain (5,860 new persons).

    4. St. Charles county (St. Louis area) grew by over 25,000 during the period, or 7%. It ranked first in total population increase.

    5. Clay county (KC area) rounds out the top 5 with a 6.2% increase. It is by far the smallest of the top 5 counties and its total increase of 737 persons ranked 25th in the state (out of 115).

    Source: Report popests_mocounties.pdf.

  • The 34 counties in Missouri that are located within larger Metro areas had a net increase of 106,000 or 2.4% during the 5-year period. The 22 counties located in the smaller micropolitan statistical areas had only a very tiny .3% increase with a net outmigration of over 6.000. The remaining 59 Missouri counties not within a metropolitan or micropolitan area (i.e. a CBSA) had a net loss of 13,758 persons, or 1.6%. This just confirms what most Missourians could guess - not many folks are moving to rural Missouri.

    Source: Report popests_moregns.html. (This report has lots of interesting summaries for custom Missouri county-based regions such as DED and MODOT regions).

  • The Kansas City Metropolitan Statistical Area (CBSA code 28140), comprised of 14 counties in the states of Missouri(9)and Kansas(5) grew by 78,133 persons or 3.9%. The five Kansas counties increased at almost double the rate of the Missouri counties (5.4% vs. 2.8%). Meanwhile the St. Louis MSA, comprised of 15 counties in Misssouri(8) and Illinois(7) grew by only 23,840 persons or less than 1% (.9). The Missouri portion did better than the Illinois side, registering a net gain of 27,060 versus the east side's loss of 8,600. Percentagewise this was a 1.7% increase for the Missouri portion and a 1.6% ;loss for the Illinois portion.

    Source: Report popests15_uscbsas.pdf.

Note that all the report links cited above are included on our Population Estimates Reports index page. It also contains links to access the underlying data set used in each report using Dexter.

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