----- April 3, 2014 -----

Census Bureau Releases New County Estimates With Components of Change

This is the first in a series of three major sub-state estimate products to be released in the first half of this year. The key item in this set is the 2013 estimated total population for each state and county. The data are also reported for CBSAs (Metropolitan Statistical Areas and Micropolitan SA's). These figures contain annual estimates (starting with July 1,2010 and going through July 1, 2013) and report components of change (births, deaths, migration) for each year since 2010 plus the 3-month period April-June, 2010. These data are stored in a series of data sets within the popests data directory, and the Datasets.html file for navigating though those sets has been updated to reflect the 5 new data sets (mocom13, mocom13t, uscom13, uscomcbsas13, and mocomregns13). Follow the metadata links in Datasets.html for details. They are all the same as last year but now with data for through 2013 rather than 2012.

Missouri Halts Two-year Rapid Outmigration Trend

The new estimates show that the state of Missouri added almost 20,000 new residents in the year July 1, 2012 to July 1, 2013. The data also show that the increase was due entirely to natural increase (births - deaths), with net migration (persons moving into the state minus persons moving out) still showing a net loss (out-migration) of 700 persons.

While a loss of 700 people is no cause for celebration (for most people; there are those who think fewer people is a good thing) it breaks a two-year losing streak that was almost ten times worse. In the previous two years the state lost an average of about 6500 persons. In 9 of the 10 years prior to that the state had a net in-migration of over 10,000 (with a 9,305 increase in the worst of those years, 2007-2008).

Population Trend Report Generated by poptrend1

(See the entire report with live links).

Other Interesting Trends Shown in the Estimates

We'll focus on Missouri trends here. To see more national perspectives (which seem to mainly focus on what is going on in North Dakota due to the economic boom related to the gas and oil industries) try googling "population trend census estimates 2013".

  1. Boone county had its 13th consecutive year with at least 2,000 population added and over 1,000 net in-migration. However, the total increase was down by over 400 from the previous year and was the smallest increase ince 2000-2001. The net migration figure was the smallest of any of the most recent years shown in the poptrend1 report (i.e. since 2000-2001).

  2. The city of St. Louis (a county equivalent, so we get data for it) had its worst year since since 2006-2007 when it lost over 2,000 population. The loss this year (2012-2013) was only 696 but it on the heels of two post-census years where the total loss had been only 145. Also, two years prior to that it had actually added about 1,300 people (all this without the aid of a successful challenge of the original estimates by the city as occurred routinely in the previous decade). These numbers (those prior to 2010) are the intercensal adjustment figures, so they reflect a significant adjustment to the city's population based on the results of the 2010 census, which showed that the city's estimate challenges during the previous decade resulted in over estimates.

  3. The top 5 counties based on population added over the last 3.25 years (4-1-2010 to 7-1-2013) were St. Charles (13,010), Greene (8,696), Clay (8,534), Boone (8,131) and Jackson (5,838). Boone had the largest percentage increase (5.0), with Christian county second with a 4.5% increase. The top 5 ranked by change in just the most recent year were the same, although Jackson and Boone switched ranks.

  4. The five biggest losers of population since the 2010 census were Jasper (-1,006), St. Louis City (-940), Stone (-905), New Madrid (-595) and McDonald (-525). Note that three of these five are located in the far southwest corner of the state.

  5. Counties within Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the state have shown a growth of 59,385 (1.3%) since the 2010 census, while those within Micropolitan SA's added only 4.375 people (.6%). The 59 counties in the state that are outside any metro or micro-politan area had a net loss of 8,512 people (-1.0%).

  6. The mocomregns13 data set was created by the MCDC to summarize these trends by various county-based regions in Missouri. One of the region types included is RPC (Regional Planning Commissions). We accessed this data set using Dexter/Rankster and discovered that the five RPC's with the greated population gain since the 2010 census were Mid-America (Kansas City area - 19,068 gain), East-West Gateway (St. Louis area - 17,615 gain), Southwest Missouri COG (Springfield area - 12,248 gain), Mid-Missouri (Columbia area) - 9.170 gain) and SEMO RPC (Cape Girardeau area -- 2,277 gain). The 3 biggest losers of population amond the RPCs were Green Hills, Kaysinger Basin and Bootheel.

  7. Missouri ranks 18th in total population in 2013 (same rank as in 2010) and 26th in population change since the 2010 census (40th in % change over that period). The state ranks 47th in net migration since the last census. That puts us just behind 46th-ranked New York (but they have a much larger population, and much of their out-migration is for retirement), and ahead of the nation's four biggest losers: Mississippi (48), Ohio (49), Michigan (50) and Illinois (51).

    In case anyone is interested, we got all these numbers by accessing the new uscom13 data set in the popests data directory using Uexplore/Dexter, filtering to get just state level summaries (SumLev Equals 040), keeping the relevant variables, and passing it all to Rankster to do the rankings for us. It took less than 3 minutes to do the first report, and less than a minute to go back and run it again with different rank variables.